'There is a weak link between the economy and the stock market.'
'If one believes that the Indian stock market will go up 70 per cent every year for the next 10 years, I wish you good luck!'
In a bull-case scenario it sees the Sensex at 61,000 levels, while it's bear case scenario pegs the Sensex at 41,000 levels by December 2021.
Markets
'In the short term, we may see some disruptions due to Covid, but in the medium-to-long term, we should keep an eye on US inflation and 10-year bond yields.'
The infra-major going belly up cracked open some major flaws in the system - the most evident being weak corporate governance and how layers of corporate structures could be formed adding to the opaqueness of the group.
Agriculture activity, according to recent channel checks by Prabhudas Lilladher, is expected to continue at a strong pace in FY22.
Over the next three - six months, UBS believes earnings will be the main driver for EM equities outperformance.
'Rising Covid cases and localised lockdowns are being closely monitored.'
However, a prolonged and intense second wave that curtails oxygen supply to industries for a longer-than-expected period will exacerbate downside risk in affected sectors
Despite a shaky Q3, conviction over the stock remained high, with 65 per cent of the analysts polled on Bloomberg retaining their 'buy' recommendation.
If the current restrictions remain in place until the end of May, we estimate that the cumulative loss of activity could amount to around $10.5 billion, or around 0.34 percentage point (pp) of annual nominal gross domestic product, say Barclays economists.
Shares of small-cap companies have been on a roll with the S&P BSE Small-Cap index hitting a new high in intra-day deals on Thursday. The rally has been fueled by an up move in stocks of chemicals, cement, graphite electrode makers, pharmaceuticals and information technology (IT) shares. In the past two weeks, since March 25, the index has outperformed the market by gaining 7.3 per cent. In comparison, the S&P BSE Midcap index was up 6.1 per cent, while the S&P BSE Sensex gained 3.6 per cent during the same period.
'They can shift to dynamic asset allocation funds to automatically rebalance their equity exposure.'
However, despite Covid, Indian markets registered their best financial year performance in a decade, with the Sensex and Nifty50 rallying 68 per cent and 71 per cent, respectively, in FY21.
The divestment process, however, will not be an easy affair as there are multiple stakeholders, including the employee unions, whose concerns will have to be addressed.
This is a key reason for the finance ministry's objection to fixing the tenure at 100 years, as it is pushing PSBs to be self-dependent and raise funds from the market, reports Hamsini Karthik.
The markets have been unable to sustain at higher levels as a rise in bond yields globally, especially in the US have dented sentiment. Surging commodity prices, especially crude oil that have now hit $70 a barrel (Brent) coupled with inflation woes and fear of sporadic lockdown across major economic hubs back home as Covid cases rise have chased the bulls away. In the short-term, analysts expect the markets to remain volatile as they react to news flow - both from overseas and developments back home. Investors, they say, need to keep a tab on how the US treasury yields move, which in turn will have a ripple effect on how big money moves across developed (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs), including India.
Despite a massive underperformance at the bourses since the last six months, analysts are turning optimistic on Reliance Industries (RIL). Those at Jefferies, for instance, say that the company is a proxy play for India's consumption growth story. The key catalysts for the stock, according to a Jeffries note, include faster-than-expected market share gain in retail, oil-to-chemicals (O2C) stake sale, recovery in gross refining margins (GRM), potential public listing of Jio and even a possible banking licence going ahead. That apart, analysts feel any tariff hike in Reliance Jio (RJio) - its telecom venture - will also aid performance. With balance sheet adequately de-levered, proceeds from a strategic stake sale in the O2C business will create a sizeable war chest for the company, analysts say.
It is nearly after 13 years that a foreign brokerage has resumed holistic coverage on stocks of public sector banks (PSBs). To that extent, Morgan Stanley's report dated March 3, where the analysts have listed their order of preference for PSB stocks, is an indication that the state-owned banks may once again be attracting some interest, thanks to three back-to-back quarters of good results in FY21 so far. "State-owned banks' balance sheets have improved, and bad loans formation should moderate going forward," the analysts note and this is the key reason for them to relook at their stance on PSBs. While State Bank of India (SBI) remains their preferred pick, stocks of Bank of Baroda (BOB) and Punjab National Bank (PNB) have been upgraded from 'underweight' to 'equal-weight'. The brokerage maintains its underweight recommendation on Bank of India and Canara Bank.
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